Archive for Thank you Nate 538

Nate Silver: After all votes are finally counted, Pres. Obama likely to extend his lead to 3%-plus

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Nate Silver has been mocked, insulted, and slurred by very angry, very humiliated, very small-minded, nasty conservatives, because he was right. The GOP and the truth haven't been getting along too well, and this was no exception. Republicans *coughKARLROVEcough* believed their own polls, they reside in their own bubble, and they've literally ignored facts and figures.

But none of that could change the truth, and none of that has fazed Nate the Great at FiveThirtyEight, who has even more to say. And that "more" includes President Obama likely extending his lead to a healthy three percent.

Here are a few excerpts from Nate's latest post titled "Turnout Steady in Swing States and Down in Others, But Many Votes Remain Uncounted":

Initial accounts of last Tuesday’s presidential election contemplated what seemed to be a significant decline in turnout from 2008. Those reports may have been premature, at least in part. [...]

Even without these votes, turnout in the battleground states over all was generally near its 2008 levels. In contrast, it is down by about 9 percent in the other 40 states, based on ballots counted so far. Some of the shortfall will be made up in the coming days. In California, where most balloting is conducted by mail and where it can take weeks to certify the vote, about 3.4 million fewer votes than in 2008 have been reported so far.

As the rest of the votes come in from California, Mr. Obama could add about 700,000 more votes in his margin against Mr. Romney, assuming that the remaining votes are divided between the candidates in about the same proportions as the ones counted so far.

Those votes could be enough to push Mr. Obama’s margin of victory in the national popular vote, reported at 2.7 percent as of Monday morning, to slightly higher than 3 percent.

And just to rub snark to the GOP wound, here's a treat from my hilarious buddy Andy Cobb:

To the extent that his proclivities are of importance to you please substitute "dudes" for "chicks" in all dialogue: Mr. Silver is gay. But in the popular imagination he's suddenly become a heterosexual superhero--wonky, pragmatic, and able to steer through uncertain times. Suddenly girls wanna do him/men wanna be him. Good for him.

"Drunk Nate Silver" became a Twitter thing recently, which makes perfect sense. People intuitively know prophecy is a gift...and a burden. In the face of such relentless clarity he might well crave some oblivion--if you or I had to deal with that kind of insight we'd probably go straight to the bottle and get messy as Rasmussen.

So if the web wants to superimpose Charles Bukowski on Nate Silver, let it. I would personally rather fantasize that he's a booze-hungry skirt-chasing seer of visions than learn all that fucking math.

And cm'on, if you don't buy his book you're going to have a much harder time pretending you've read it:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/159420411X/ref...

Don't be the last person at the party to act like you understand Bayesian processes vis-a-vis free market economics, you're going to look like a real a-hole.

Written/Directed by Andy Cobb
http://www.twitter.com/AndyCobb
Producer/DP: Mike Damanskis
Co-writer: Eric R. Pfeffinger

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Republicans -- Not Obama -- More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion

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I think men who crunch numbers are sexy and Nate is smoking hot.

Of these 25 issues, Obama's position appears to be on the right side of public opinion on 14: the bank tax, repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, campaign finance, the credit card bill, D.C. voting rights, fair pay, financial regulation, gays in the military, hate crimes, the jobs bill, mortgage relief, PAYGO, SCHIP, and Sotomayor. It would appear to be on the wrong side of public opinion on five issues: the GM/Chrysler bailout, Guantanamo Bay, health care, the extension of the TARP program, and terrorist trials. On the other six issues, the polling is probably too ambiguous to render a clear verdict.

Republicans, on the other hand, have been overwhelmingly opposed to almost all of these measures with the exception of Ben Bernanke and Afghanistan troops, both of which poll ambiguously, and the credit card bill, which polled well.

He breaks it all down here.

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