Archive for statistics

Your Number’s Up

Guest post by David Garber

numbersdg

I have fun with numbers… sometimes they’re shocking, other times they’re very amusing. I’m not good with them, I just enjoy them. So, with that in mind, here’s a few you might want to use at your next social gathering.

0. The grizzly bear is the official state animal of California but no grizzly bears have been seen there since 1922. Maybe it’s time for a new state animal — The elusive Darryl Issa cretin is my suggestion.

48. That’s the percentage of all Americans who are currently considered to be “low income” or are living in poverty. Remove Mitt Romney and the Koch brothers from the calculations and the number is substantially higher.

600. That’s average number of cans of soda each American consumes in a year. Only 22% of those aluminum cans are recycled. What’s the matter with you people? Cans don’t grow on trees!

2.4. That’s how many times more the average person in the US spends on health care than in the UK. It’s evident that the difference must be in dental preventative hygiene.

3.
Montana has three times as many cows as it does people. That might explain why politics in that state is “udderly” ridiculous.

66. No, not Route 66 — Today, 66% of all Americans are considered to be overweight. Remove Chris Christie and Rush Limbaugh from the equation and it’s down to 47%. Still to high.

25. That’s the percent of all U.S. employees with Internet access who visit pornography websites while they are at work. So next time you go to the office, look around and see who’s smiling — and who’s perspiring.

52. That’s the percentage of children living in Cleveland that are below the poverty level. I guess we should ask Betty White why her show’s called Hot in Cleveland. Doesn’t sound like things are so hot to me.

167,000. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, that’s the number of Americans who have more than $200,000 of student loan debt. But don’t worry. The Republicans are trying to pass a bill to double interest rates on student loans. If they’re successful, the average student will be paid off just in time for social security.

16.5
— There are 19 million new cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia in the United States every single year. With our US population of 320 million, we’ll all have one of those diseases in 16.5 years.

Okay, hope you had fun with numbers like I did.

For the past 25 years, David Garber has been serving as the show runner and or writer on some of television’s biggest hits… Saved By The Bell, Power Rangers, 227, Bill Cosby Show and many other network series. His writing and producing have also netted David two very prestigious awards:the PRISM AWARD and the TV CRITICS AWARD – TV SPECIAL OF THE YEAR. Currently he’s authoring a short story series called “A Few Minutes With…”

University Grad Student Debunks Major Austerity Theory by Exposing Flawed Stats

I’ve always believed (and seen demonstrated in reality) that ‘you have to spend money to make money’, the right-wing theory that to prosper you have to spend less made no sense.  Education and infrastructure, two core components of successful societies, cost money and if they’re to be for the good of all, instead of a few rich investors, the money has to come from tax revenue.

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The theory made no sense to others either, including Thomas Herndon, University of Massachusetts economics grad student who discovered major flaws in the ‘research’, really basic statistical flaws added to incompetence in coding an Excel spreadsheet.

From Mark Karlin (of BuzzFlash writing at Truthout) quoting Paul Krugman:

But just look at the predictions the two sides in this debate have made. People like me predicted right from the start that large budget deficits would have little effect on interest rates, that large-scale “money printing” by the Fed (not a good description of actual Fed policy, but never mind) wouldn’t be inflationary, that austerity policies would lead to terrible economic downturns. The other side jeered, insisting that interest rates would skyrocket and that austerity would actually lead to economic expansion. Ask bond traders, or the suffering populations of Spain, Portugal and so on, how it actually turned out.

Read more at Truthout

Violence against women down 64 percent in decade

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As they say in the business, that’s a good start!

WASHINGTON — The Justice Department says the rate of sexual violence against women and girls age 12 or older fell 64 percent in a decade and has remained stable for five years.

In 2010, women and girls nationwide experienced about 270,000 rapes or sexual assaults, compared with 556,000 in 1995, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics survey released Thursday.

Rates declined from a peak of 5 per 1,000 women in 1995 to 1.8 per 1,000 women in 2005. The figure remained unchanged from 2005 to 2010.

Eleanor Smeal, president of the Feminist Majority, has been working for decades to curb violence against women, and she said in an interview that the new study is proof that the newly reauthorized Violence Against Women Act and awareness of the problem by police is having a positive impact.

Smeal said that now, more than ever, “everybody knows that rape and sexual assault are crimes and will be treated as such.”

“The conservative mind has an amazing capacity for manufacturing reasons to reject disagreeable evidence.”

Today’s L.A. Times letters to the editor, because our voices matter:

Re “Silver’s numbers racket,” Opinion, Nov. 6

I think what I like best about Nate Silver is that he is so often right.

Sorry, Jonah Goldberg, but Silver’s battleground predictions were right on.

Clara Solis
Los Angeles

****

Silver’s unusually accurate predictions are explained by his use of validated statistical methods.

He has come under attack for his disregard of momentum, gut feelings and the musings of pundits like Goldberg who are paid to promote their ideological viewpoints.

We rely on statistical models for many decisions every single day, including for weather forecasts, in medicine and in many complex systems in which there is an element of uncertainty in the outcome.

Indeed, these are the same methods by which scientists could predict, days in advance, that Superstorm Sandy was about to hit the United States.

The Goldberg piece is one of many whining complaints about Silver I’ve seen from conservative shills, all of them reminiscent of the recent ignorant attacks on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science.

Clearly, the conservative mind has an amazing capacity for manufacturing reasons to reject disagreeable evidence.

Michael K. Finnigan
Encino

****

So what are we to make of Silver’s predictions, now that the election’s an accomplished fact and Silver was exactly correct?

Goldberg’s preferred right-wing statisticians seem to have missed the mark. As Goldberg pointed out for us: garbage in, garbage out.

But one thing old Jonah says is true: Those of us who do math on a daily basis do indeed have a deep faith in it. After all, it got us to the moon and back. It’s the one thing you can actually prove.

Think Goldberg will ever concede his error?

Paul Ryan
Brea

****

Goldberg was right: We do go to Silver’s blog to comfort ourselves. And the reason we’re comforted is that Silver’s analysis is sophisticated, rigorous and correct.

Jackie Flaskerud
San Diego

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It was with resigned dismay that I read the latest anti-science diatribe by Goldberg regarding Silver’s mathematical model for interpreting election polls.

Goldberg’s article was typical of the current climate: If you don’t agree with the scientific analysis, attack the messenger.

What Goldberg ignored was the fact that Silver gained nothing by “gaming” his model to support his chosen candidate; if Mitt Romney had won, then Silver’s model would have been discredited and he would be back to peddling baseball statistics.

This head-in-the-sand view of science is not simply wrongheaded partisanship that exemplifies the moral and intellectual vacuum in which many of today’s Republican pundits operate. In a world growing warmer by the day, it is downright dangerous.

Ken Wilton
Manhattan Beach

Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race

Thanks to the ignorance of the Teabagger candidates, we should save the Senate. Nate goes on to cite the example of George Allen’s Macaca gaffe and Hoekstra’s funky “China thanks you” ad against Debbie Stabenow as similar events. Let’s hope so.

In my review of Senate races last week, I classified Representative Todd Akin of Missouri, who won the Republican primary earlier this month, as a very slight favorite over the Democratic incumbent in the state, Claire McCaskill.

Although some Democrats were pleased that Mr. Akin was the nominee, he nevertheless held a small lead over Ms. McCaskill in the polls, which averaged five percentage points across four surveys conducted in July and August.

But that was before Mr. Akin’s controversial remarks about rape in an interview with a St. Louis television station that was broadcast on Sunday morning. The comments, and Mr. Akin’s subsequent explanation of them, drew overwhelmingly negative sentiment at social networking platforms, including on Mr. Akin’s Facebook page.

No two controversies are alike, and we’ll have to wait for polling data to see what impact this has on the race. But based on some loose historical precedents, the remarks could be enough to swing the polls to Ms. McCaskill.

Updated: FAKED 1982 Stats: Sarah Palin’s IQ– 83. That high?

UPDATE: Now this is more like it.

Added: If this is a disinfo campaign, I stand corrected. But still, not too far off, don’tcha think? (And the best joke of the ’08 season.)

Added: I stand corrected. Blog title edited to reflect. She’s still a dim bulb, however.

FAKED:

Actually, that’s overstating it. She must have had a good day.

Here are her [faked] SAT scores and more:

For more fake fun facts and stats, go here.

H/t: @shondi99

Odds of Airborne Terror

But if you listened to the party of bedwetters, you’d be convinced there was a mooslim under every bed. Via Taegan-

Nate Silver notes that from October 1999 through September 2009 there has been one terrorist incident per 16,553,385 airplane departures.

Furthermore, “the odds of being on given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been 1 in 10,408,947 over the past decade. By contrast, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 500,000. This means that you could board 20 flights per year and still be less likely to be the subject of an attempted terrorist attack than to be struck by lightning.”