Archive for shrinkage

Memo to GOP: Federal deficit shrinking at surprising rate, long-term debt stabilized for next decade #BlameObama

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chart budget deficit shrinks 4 year low Steve Benen Maddow Blog Oct 2012

Another Republican talking point is biting the dust in a big way. Previously I posted U.S. budget surplus biggest in 5 years; federal deficit is down 32% so far this fiscal year and Congressional Budget Office: Federal budget deficit declining; $231 billion less than 2012 #BlameObama.

Now, the Los Angeles Times has two reports that buttress those. It’s good news for President Obama and America, bad news for GOP whiners and obstructionists:

The federal deficit is shrinking more quickly than expected, and the government’s long-term debt has largely stabilized for the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday in a report that could strengthen the Obama administration’s hand in the budget battles with congressional Republicans. [...]

The deficit projection for this year — $642 billion — is almost 25% less than the deficit the budget office had forecast as recently as February. At the new level, the annual deficit would be back to where it was before President Obama took office. It would continue to fall for the rest of Obama’s tenure, the budget office now projects.  [...]

By 2015, the budget office forecasts, the deficit will fall to just over 2% of GDP, a level that most economists would consider relatively insignificant.

What?! Why, that’s positively unpatriotic! Here are the reasons for the shrinkage:

1. A better economy. Let’s repeat that: A better economy.

2. The rate of medical inflation is slowing down — which reduces the cost of Medicare and Medicaid.

3. Congress approved higher taxes, remember? That was when the dreaded “fiscal cliff” was the topic du jour.

I appreciated this very clear, concise explanation of the deficit and debt:

The federal deficit is the gap between what the government spends each year and its revenue, mostly taxes. The government has run a deficit almost every year for the last half-century. The federal debt represents the accumulated money that the government borrows to cover that deficit. [...]

Underscoring the political dynamic, Republicans, who trumpeted news of higher deficits during Obama’s first term, fell largely silent in reaction to the new figures.

 Of course they did. They always do when their political attacks get destroyed by pesky facts.

And then there’s this, also from the L.A. Times:

American families reduced their debt load in the first three months of the year by 1%, bringing it down to pre-recession levels after an uptick in the last quarter of 2012, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.

What a scandal!

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Congressional Budget Office: Federal budget deficit declining; $231 billion less than 2012 #BlameObama

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oy

First let me share a few headlines, then I’ll get into some detail. All of these are from The Hill, including the blog headline about the CBO showing a decline in the budget deficit:

So to recap: The federal budget deficit is shrinking, Mitch McConnell and his Merry Band of Loons are doing their usual obstruction dance, the White House will veto if the GOP insists on continuing their “the debt limit is just default by another name” b.s., and the likelihood of an agreement on anything in the world ever is shrinking as fast as the deficit.

Can this get any more frustrating?

Check this out, keeping the new Republican-opposed tax increase in mind:

The Congressional Budget Office reported Tuesday that the federal budget deficit is declining this year compared to fiscal 2012.

For the first seven months of 2013, the deficit was $489 billion. That is $231 billion less than the budget shortfall for the comparable period last year.

The decrease is almost entirely due to revenue increases. Revenues rose $200 billion and spending decreased only $11 billion.

And McConnell continues to insist that Republicans will block an increase the debt limit if it is not attached to legislation to reduce the federal deficit. They don’t want us to pay our bills. Sorry, I lost control and lapsed into a larger font. 

The White House:

“American families do not get to choose which bills to pay and which ones not to pay, and the United States Congress cannot either without putting the Nation into default for the first time in its history.”

There’s that. And Mitch? The federal deficit is already shrinking… Remember?

chart budget deficit shrinks 4 year low Steve Benen Maddow Blog Oct 2012

Harry Reid said, “We’ve known for years that the Tea Party has full control of the House, but now we understand they have full control of the Republican caucus here in the Senate.”

Reid noted the most outspoken Republican on the issue of moving to a budget conference has been Sen. Ted Cruz (R), whom he called the “very junior senator from Texas.”

it's crazy in here

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“The fact is Rep. Michele Bachmann’s Tea Party Caucus has been inactive for several months.”

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bachmann close up smaller

The fact is that Michele Bachmann is a lying, delusional crackpot who still can’t pronounce the word “United” (she says “Unine-ed States”), as you can see in this video:

The entire segment is here and is not embeddable.

But that’s not important now. What is important is, per Roll Call, this:

[T]he fact is Rep. Michele Bachmann’s Tea Party Caucus has been inactive for several months.

The caucus, much heralded and well-covered by the press when it was created in 2010 as a congressional conduit for the national movement of the same name, has not announced a public meeting since July, and the group’s Twitter account has been silent since September.

Their spokesman, Dan Kotman, claims they’ve been meeting with activists “behind the scenes” and will become more active again during the current session of Congress. He also said they’ve been doing a lot of listening. Theirs is not to talk, but to listen, says he. Given Bachmann’s propensity for tea-babble, you could have fooled us.

Kotman also blamed redistricting. He says members have to get used to their new territories.

He should have blamed his fellow tea partiers:

In a CNN/ORC Poll published this month, 48 percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement.

Their inactivity is just as well, since nobody is paying much attention to them anyway.

tea party shrinking

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BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Budget Deficit Falls in February from Year Prior

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shrinkage smaller

Guess who this breaking news alert is from? Fox Business. But do you think that will stop conservatives and the trolls on Twitter, Facebook, the Internets, the Tee Vee and Radio Machines, and this blog from denying that this news is true?

Times up. The answer is no. They’ll read the following sentence and claim it’s all a lie, even though it comes straight from Fox:

The U.S. federal budget deficit came in at $203.5 billion in February, slimmer than the $231.7 billion in the same month the year before.

Yes, the budget deficit is continuing to shrink under the evil black Kenyan Muslim commie Marxist president .

chart budget deficit shrinks 4 year low Steve Benen Maddow Blog Oct 2012

We have Dwindling Deficit Disorder. And as Paul Krugman also points out, Yes, We Have To Fix The Deficit Eventually–But Not Now.

The Maddow Blog’s Steve Benen:

For the record, last year, over President Obama’s first four years, the deficit shrunk by about $300 billion. This year, the deficit is projected to be about $600 billion smaller than when the president took office. We are, in reality, currently seeing the fastest deficit reduction in several generations.

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CHART– Memo to GOP: Spending cuts SHRINK the economy, undermine growth. Oh, and the U.S. added jobs in January.

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shrinkage smaller

chart spending cuts shrink economy

Via Steve Benen at The Maddow Blog.
The red columns show the economy under the Bush administration; the blue columns show the economy under the Obama administration.

For the first time in years we’re seeing a slight contraction in economic growth. Here is an email alert from the New York Times from this morning:

The United States economy contracted unexpectedly in the final quarter of 2012, hurt by weaker exports, a drop in military spending and a slower buildup in inventories.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that economic output in the quarter fell at an annual rate of 0.1 percent, compared with growth at a 3.1 percent pace in the third quarter.

READ MORE: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/business/economy/us-economy-unexpectedly-contracted-in-fourth-quarter.html?emc=na

Now before everyone panics, Steve Benen at the Maddow Blog notes that this is not necessarily evidence of a new recession, and on the whole, the report really isn’t that bad.

But that won’t stop Republicans from playing the Blame Obama game. Did I mention that, per a Fox Business email alert, the ADP National Employment Report shows the U.S. private sector added 192,000 jobs in January, topping estimates of 165,000?

Via Benen:

I realize the right doesn’t want to hear or believe this, but when Washington spends far less — in this case, the cuts focused on defense — it takes capital out of the economy and undermines growth. It is, as a practical matter, a form of austerity, which hits the brakes on the economy. This is Economics 101 and yet Republicans continue to insist that it is the only policy they really care about.

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Mitt Romney’s playing field is experiencing shrinkage

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As has been reported, for now at least, Republican super PACs have pulled their resources from Michigan and Pennsylvania. At first I saw that as good news for Team Obama, but then I wondered if the Romney campaign will just blitz those states in the future. I’m no strategist or expert in these things, so your guess is as good as mine.

And of course, I am always wringing my hands over voter suppression, which could keep hundreds of thousands from the polls.

Jonathan Chait offers some encouraging insight, but I’m still only cautiously optimistic at this point:

Romney is targeting eight states: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire. No Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. This is surely not because Romney is husbanding scarce cash.  [...]

The reason this looks worrisome for Romney is that he’s pursuing an electoral-college strategy that requires him nearly to run the table of competitive states. … If you play with the electoral possibilities, you can see that this would mean Obama could win with Florida alone or Ohio plus a small state or Virginia plus a couple small states, and so on.

Unless I’m missing something badly here, Romney needs either a significant national shift his way — possibly from the debates or some other news event — or else to hope that his advertising advantage is potent enough to move the dial in almost every swing state in which he’s competing.

Or else to hope that disenfranchising voters will achieve what his money can’t.

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VIDEO- Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA): “Paul Ryan is in the pool” …”skinny dipping.”

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Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Psst! Jack! Tell Paul that it’s not uncommon to be lonely after experiencing shrinkage.

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