Archive for presidential election

You Can't Count on Us Anymore, GOP

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seniors

It is quite evident that over the past forty or so years, there are groups of voters who tend to vote, in majority, for the same party each election. Sometimes they're even taken for granted and just assumed to belong en masse in the Democratic or Republican column. Young voters, minority voters, highly educated voters and immigrant voters tended to go Democratic. The Wealthy, white, rural voters tended to go Republican. The elderly were a sure check mark in the GOP column. Solid as they come. Right as rain, you could count on them.

Until now.

Yup, either these folks got wiser in their old age or younger people are graduating to the senior ranks, but according to well respected pollster by both Republicans and Democrats, Stan Greenberg's word are always something that both parties paid heed to. And now he's got some pretty worrisome news for the grand old party. They're losing seniors -- big time. And I don't mean losing them to the undertaker. Losing them to the Democrats. The National Journal reports: 

Just 28 percent of voters 65 and older had a favorable view of the Republican Party in a national survey conducted last month by the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, versus 40 percent who had a positive view of the Democrats. That's a reversal from a poll Greenberg conducted in early 2011, when 43 percent of seniors saw Republicans favorably and 37 percent saw Democrats that way.

I guess the Republicans thought that cutting Social Security, Medicare, even public housing wouldn't affect the geezer crowd of which I could be considered a member. But I digress.

"It is now strikingly clear that [seniors] have turned sharply against the GOP," Erica Seifert, a senior associate at Greenberg's firm, wrote on the company's website this week. "We have seen other voters pull back from the GOP, but among no group has this shift been as sharp as it is among senior citizens.

So, let's see, the GOP are losing the young, the elderly, the minorities, the urban, the educated, and women. Do they still think they're going to do okay? You bet they do because they have their secret weapon. It's so secret that they don't even know what it is. If I was a betting man I'd say they were totally in denial. But how could someone like Reince Priebus lead a party to going against everything that their report card said they should be doing?

failing report card

You only do that under two conditions. You don't care or you've given up. Maybe Reince doesn't care that he's given up. Certainly the lack of any viable national candidate is haunting them already.

But it's not just on the national level this movement is taking place. It effects state offices as well.

In the July survey, large majorities of seniors agreed with progressive economic proposals, including protecting Medicare benefits (89 percent), raising working women's pay (87 percent) and expanding access to child care for working parents (77 percent). But seniors also took issue with the GOP on social concerns: slim majorities called the Republican Party "extreme" on aid to the poor (53 percent), immigration (53 percent), gay rights (52 percent), and gun violence (51 percent).

So keep on doing what you're doing, GOP. Your fractured party is going to destroy you from within. Here's what happens when you become known as the party of "no":

Republicans' advantage could erode if the party keeps up its emphasis on pure obstructionism in Washington. "We used to hear a sort of equal-opportunity anti-Washington, anti-partisan line from voters in our focus groups," she said. "Increasingly, they're shifting that blame to Republicans for just saying no and refusing to compromise."

How long until they nominate the hologram of Reagan to be their standard bearer? He's stiff enough to fit right in with Paul, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Christie and Peter King. Actually he has more movement than Rick Santorum who's hoping for an outside shot at the brass ring.

loser

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GOP strategist Mike Murphy: "Democrats begin each presidential election with a near lock on the Electoral College."

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it's a lock

Mike Murphy wrote this commentary in the Detroit Free Press:

The GOP's greatest challenge is the fact that Democrats begin each presidential election with a near lock on the Electoral College. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia have given their electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee in at least five out of the last six elections. These states represent 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Under current trends, the GOP nominee has to pull the equivalent of drawing an inside straight in poker to get to the White House. [...]

The GOP needs to reshuffle the deck and expand the presidential playing field. Success in Michigan could become its electoral ace in the hole.

Mike Murphy, a principal at the Revolution Agency, was the lead strategist to former Michigan Gov. John Engler and U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham. Trent Wisecup is a Republican consultant who has worked for Abraham, Oakland County Executive Brooks Patterson and U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg.

I'm not sure how the Dems have a near lock on the Electoral College when Republicans are indeed "shuffling the deck" and "expanding the presidential playing field" by gerrymandering and disenfranchising voters as fast as they can. If some GOP states have their way, they will "apportion electoral votes by congressional district, a setup far more favorable to Republicans." In fact, it could change the outcome of future elections.

So as much as I want to believe that Dems have the advantage, I find it difficult to be that optimistic.

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Michele Bachmann Breaks Fundraising Record

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Who are these people? Via Taegan.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) "eclipsed her record-setting 2010 fundraising total to win a fourth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, despite a strong challenge from local hotel magnate Jim Graves (D)," KARE-TV reports.

New filings show Bachmann "raked in $14.4 million for her 2012 race, almost $1 million more than what she raised during the previous two-year campaign cycle."

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