Archive for prediction

Video- The Daily Show: Can't You at Least Wait Until Jon Stewart Gets Back - 2016 Election


Raw Video- Punxsutawney Phil Predicts Early Spring


Anyone know the stats on the rodent? How often is he right? I'm hoping it's more right than not, puhleeze?


"If this were truly a dead even race, Romney should be ahead in these polls almost as often as he is behind."


Dan Balz is reporting that Willard M. Romney's advisers believe that if their candidate can get to the GOP convention with the race close to even, he could end up leading during the final two months of the campaign. That means they also believe that he can compensate for any damage he's done to himself in the swing states, which so far favor President Obama.

And by compensate they mean convince voters that he's not a total dufus loser outsourcing tax- returnless gaffe machine.

They have a lot of work to do.

Dan Balz continues, via WaPo:

But in looking at the numbers nationally and in the battleground states, the consistency of Obama’s lead is striking. More than two dozen national polls have been conducted since the beginning of June. Obama has led in the overwhelming number of them.

Polls in the most contested states show a similar pattern. In three of the most important — Ohio, Florida and Virginia — there have been roughly three dozen polls total since April, about the time that Romney’s GOP rivals were exiting the nomination race. In Ohio and Virginia, Obama has led in all but a few. In Florida, Romney has done better, but overall, Obama has led about twice as often.

Those polls are not definitive predictors of the November outcome, by any means. A movement in the national numbers, which could easily occur in the final weeks, will change the look of many of those states. But at this point, the available evidence suggests that the advantage, however small, is with Obama. If this were truly a dead even race, Romney should be ahead in these polls almost as often as he is behind.

Fingers crossed.

Get out the vote.


The (Possible) Coming Obama Landslide


has another great article at the Daily Beast. If you recall, his last one was a major smack down of Willard Romney's wimp factor. Read about it, you'll be glad you did: VIDEO- Robert Gibbs: Romney is “embarrassing.” Daily Beast: He’s “lame, annoying, a true wimp, a weenie, nervous, terrified, nasty, whiny.”

In keeping with Tomasky's article, yesterday I posted some encouraging news from Nate Silver: “Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College increased…” Tomasky adds fuel and support to that assertion by writing in his new piece, "...The fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing."

He goes on to say that Pennsylvania has been trending back toward Obama lately. In fact, it has.


Obama can lose the big Eastern four—Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of ’em!—and still be reelected.

And barring some huge cataclysm, he’s not losing all four of those states. If he wins even one—say Virginia, the smallest of the four—then Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months. [...]

Sure, something big could happen to alter the dynamic completely. ... All the supposedly game-changing events of the last few weeks haven’t changed much of anything. This is a paradoxical situation that has little or no modern precedent, which makes it hard for people to accept. Liberals are too nervous to think it, reporters too intent on a “down to the wire” narrative, and conservatives too furious and disbelieving, but it’s shaping up to be true: An extremely close election that on election night itself stands a surprisingly good chance of being not that close at all.

He has more details so please link over, and I still have a few concerns: Voter suppression (hopefully, the courts will continue to derail the GOP effort to stop people from voting); super PAC money (hopefully, saturation of the air waves by negative ads will desensitize and/or anger enough unconvinced swing voters that they'll stop listening); hatred of the president (hopefully, those people are the same 20-30% we keep seeing in the polls who comprise the most extreme members of the Republican base who would never vote for Obama in the first place).

The key is Democratic turnout. Please consider doing everything you can to assist people in accessing places of registration right now, and then getting them to the polls in November.