Archive for deficits

Krugman, take a victory lap: University Grad Student Debunks Major Austerity Theory by Exposing Flawed Stats

krugman victory lap

Speaking of how austerity is “having a devastating effect on health in Europe and North America, driving suicide,” here is your Daily Dose of BuzzFlash at Truthout, via my pal Mark Karlin:

It’s about time Paul Krugman took a victory lap – and he does in his Monday New York Times column:

…People like me predicted right from the start that large budget deficits would have little effect on interest rates, that large-scale “money printing” by the Fed (not a good description of actual Fed policy, but never mind) wouldn’t be inflationary, that austerity policies would lead to terrible economic downturns. The other side jeered, insisting that interest rates would skyrocket and that austerity would actually lead to economic expansion. Ask bond traders, or the suffering populations of Spain, Portugal and so on, how it actually turned out. [...]

Some… see the crisis as an opportunity to dismantle the social safety net. And just about everyone in the policy elite takes cues from a wealthy minority that isn’t actually feeling much pain. [...]

[A] Univeristy of Massachusetts graduate economic student… discovered major statistical errors in the primary research paper (authored by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff) used by advocates to justify austerity measures. [...]

Herndon proved that their database and coding was so statistically flawed as to offer little basis for justifying national austerity measures as a viable economic option.

In an April 19 column, Krugman discusses the torpedoing of the academic austerity touchstone:

… Reinhart-Rogoff … tipping-point claim was treated not as a disputed hypothesis but as unquestioned fact. [...]

[S]ome correlation between high debt and slow growth, with no indication of which is causing which, but no sign at all of that 90 percent “threshold.” [...]

What the Reinhart-Rogoff affair shows is the extent to which austerity has been sold on false pretenses. For three years, the turn to austerity has been presented not as a choice but as a necessity. … But “economic research” showed no such thing… Policy makers abandoned the unemployed and turned to austerity because they wanted to, not because they had to.

It took a university grad student to reveal research that powered the likes of Americans for Prosperity, ALEC, the Club for Economic Growth and most of the politicians in DC – when it comes to being cheerleaders for austerity – as highly flawed.

(You can read the University of Massachusetts study that finds the “austerity bible” coding errors here. It was co-authored by Mass U Professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin.)

Please read the entire post here.

VIDEO: The “breathaking dishonesty” of Paul Ryan and his “LaLaLand fantasy budget”

ryan budget ridic

I would like to thank the Nation’s Katrina vandenHeuvel for making the following excellent point and doing so in about a minute:

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Katrina:

Paul Ryan is no apostle of fiscal rectitude.

With all due respect to Ezra, you’re hearing Paul Ryan, who is cruel and clueless, and this is LaLaLand fantasy budget proposal, being treated seriously by someone like Ezra Klein, who is treated seriously inside the Beltway. For too long… inside the Beltway has had a a fixation, an obsession, with the deficit. We now see the deficits dwindling

The danger is that Paul Ryan, bringing this out, is gonna shift the playing field so it moves even further to the right.

Ezra Klein then says Ryan deserves to be taken seriously because he’s the House Budget Chairman. Well, newsflash, Ezra, per my November 2012 post “Global warming skeptic set to chair House Science Committee“(the following was true as of then):

Marco Rubio is unsure how old the Earth is. He is a member of the Senate’s Commerce, Science, & Transportation Committee.

Michele “Man-Made Climate Change is ‘Manufactured Science” Bachmann sits on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

The soon-to-be forgotten moron on climate change, Todd “legitimate rape” Akin, sits on the Science Committee, as does Paul Evolution, Embryology and Big Bang Theory are “lies straight from the pit of hell, Climate Change is a Hoax” Broun.

And via Amanda Terkel at HuffPo:

Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), a skeptic of man-made global warming, is set to take over the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology in the 113th Congress.

Should we take those people seriously too?

Here is the entire segment, all of it worth watching:

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Yes, Paul Ryan is proposing that Congress make the very same cuts to Medicare that he previously ranted and raved about during the 2012 elections. No hypocrite, he!

Ezra Klein:

Keep two numbers in mind… 59 and zero. 59% of Paul Ryan’s cuts, 59%, so almost 6 out of 10 dollars that he cuts… come from health care mostly for the poor [Medicaid, Obamacare, some Medicare cuts affecting the working class and the poor].

The “zero” is taxes. He doesn’t raise a dollar in taxes.

The experts I’ve spoken to don’t think that is mathematically possible.

Joy Ann Reid:

He doesn’t mind spending federal money, as long as it’s on the rich.

Ari Melber:

Just ’cause it has numbers in it doesn’t make it a budget. Right? My lottery ticket is not a budget just ’cause it’s a bunch of numbers on the page.

He’s not a deficit hawk, he’s a health care hawk.

This was a terrific segment. Please watch it all the way through.

lala land

NOTE: Apologies for the mistake on Katrina vandenHeuvel’s name, which I clearly do know. I’m, literally half asleep and let my fingers do the walking for me. It’s been corrected.

Poll-itics Chart: Cut the deficit, just don’t cut the programs we like

Americans favor cuts to the deficit and less spending in general, just as long as it’s not to programs they like specifically. Isn’t that just like America? They also support raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, by the way.

Via Think Progress:

[W]hen asked about specific programs, wide majorities almost always favor either increasing spending or maintaining the current level, according to the Pew Research Center.

“How did we get from a budget surplus at the beginning of Bush’s presidency to deficits?”

Via First Read:

So how did we get from a budget surplus at the beginning of George W. Bush’s presidency to deficits and debt as far as the eye can see? Here’s a quick timeline: the Bush tax cuts (2001), 9/11 and the Afghanistan war (2001), the Iraq war (2003), more tax cuts, the unpaid-for Medicare prescription-drug benefit (2003), the financial collapse and economic downturn (2008), the Obama stimulus (2009), and the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts (2010). Then you add the aging Baby Boomers to the whole mix. Back in 2009, the New York Times calculated that 37% of the deficits were due the economic downturn, 33% were due to Bush’s policies, 20% were due to Obama’s extensions of Bush’s policies, and another 10% were due to Obama’s policies like the stimulus.

Bush tax cuts, Bush wars, more Bush tax cuts, Bush’s Medicare plan, Bush’s financial collapse. Do we sense a common thread here?

Let’s add all that up:

37% of the deficits started during Bush’s term + 33% to Bush’s policies + 20% due to Bush policies that Obama continued = 90% Bush policies.

10% were due to Obama’s own policies.

Of course, according to Jon Kyl, 90% = 3%, so Bush is only 3% responsible for the mess we’re in.

And that was not intended to be a factual statement.

President Obama Will Announce Deficit Reduction Plan

Just a quick FYI, via Taegan:

President Obama plans to deliver “a major speech” on Wednesday laying out an aggressive plan for deficit reduction — including reform of entitlements, such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

“Reform” is one of those worrisome words that can mean anything from “improve” to “slash”.

“Entitlements” is one of those outdated words that should be changed to “necessities”.

“$%@%&!!” is one of those recurring words that keeps coming to mind these days as I watch the Democrats move to the right as the right moves into a mental hospital.

Read my lips…

The GOP has been stuck in the past for so long, they may never catch up to the rest of us. Whether it’s gay rights, women’s reproductive rights, or refusing to use email, they are woefully behind the times.

Now they’re hearkening back to the good old days of George H.W. Bush:

Ezra Klein:

Not to steal Bill Maher’s schtick, but new rule: if you’re not willing to consider tax increases, you’re not serious about deficits. Full stop. Just as rigid pacifists aren’t credible on national defense and dogmatic Christian Scientists are rarely consulted on health-care policy, a politician who has made an ideological vow to refuse to even consider tax increases is not interested in reducing deficits – and that’s true no matter how often they say the word “deficits.”  So if Grover Norquist has really gotten ironclad assurances from both Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that they will not permit tax increases as part of a deficit deal, then the only sensible conclusion is that Boehner and McConnell are not interested in deficits.

Rachel Maddow VIDEO: “Writing down what they say is not reporting…That’s called ‘publicizing’.”

Via The Maddow Blog.

Thanks to my pal ArrghPaine, for isolating this clip from the lengthier segment below:

“…It is the distance between what they say and what they are actually doing, that is the news.”

Oh, and while we’re at it… about those Bush tax cuts that Republicans insist upon keeping in place? They would ADD to the deficits. We’re talking to you, GOP, and specifically to you, Marco “$989 billion” Rubio:

“Somebody should report, so we can decide, what it is that Republicans are actually proposing, not just what they are SAYING about what they are proposing.”

What would we do without Rachel Maddow?