Ryan Teague Beckwith rounds up electoral maps from nine political prognosticators, all of which see President Obama winning re-election with anywhere from 281 to 332 electoral votes.
The right wing conspiracy theorists and whiny political commentators have their work cut out for them today. They can try to spin the latest unemployment numbers as negatively as they want, but facts are facts.
[T]he talking point is based on either ignorance or a desire to mislead. The unemployment rate went up slightly because of good news — more Americans got back in the game, re-entering the labor market as the job landscape improves. For Republicans to characterize this as discouraging is ridiculous.
By objective matters, today’s report is a fairly strong one. Job growth improved, revisions for the two previous months were up significantly, the labor force grew, and the overall jobless rate is obviously steadily declining. What’s more, as Rachel noted on the show last night, this comes against a backdrop of other encouraging economic news.
I suspect Romney/Ryan and its allies will spend the day shouting, “The unemployment rate went up 0.1%!” but this will be almost as silly as the conspiracy theorists’ nonsense.
Listening to those on the right twisting themselves into knots over good news is as eyebrow-raising as it is entertaining. You’d think they’d be happy that there’s good news coming America’s way, but as usual, they’re more interested in winning at all costs than telling the truth and accepting a black, Democratic president’s success.
Speaking of success, Benen has more to share with us, via our old friend, the Bikini Graph (red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration):
[T]he figures offer good economic news for the American people, and good political news for President Obama. [...]
The overall unemployment rate ticked slightly higher, to 7.9%, but that’s the result of a positive trend — more Americans entered the workforce, which is exactly what we’d hope to see in an improving economy.
Even more encouraging, the new report revised job totals from August and September, and both were updated in a good direction, adding a combined 84,000.
There’s just no quit in America and you’re seeing that right now. Over five million new jobs, exports up forty one percent, home values rising, our auto industry back and our heroes are coming home.
We’re not there yet. But we’ve made real progress and the last thing we should do is turn back now.
Here’s my plan for the next four years: Making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting American-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more. And ending the war in Afghanistan, so we can do some nation-building here at home. That’s the right path.
So read my plan, compare it to Governor Romney’s and decide which is better for you. It’s an honor to be your President and I’m asking for your vote. So together we can keep moving America forward.
“A lot of Americans are still angry and frustrated about this economy. If you look at the numbers, you know employment is growing, banks are beginning to lend again, and in a lot of places, housing prices have even beginning to pick up. But too many people do not feel it yet. I had this same thing happen in 1994 and early 1995. We could see that the policies were working, that the economy was growing, but most people didn’t feel it yet. Thankfully, by 1996, the economy was roaring, everybody felt it, and we were halfway through the longest peacetime expansion in the history of the United States.
But the difference this time is purely in the circumstances. President Obama started with a much weaker economy than I did. Listen to me now. No president – not me, not any of my predecessors – no one could have fully repaired all the damage that he found in just four years.”
Bill Kristol said this. Yes, neocon Bill Kristol of The Weekly Standard and regular commentator on Fox. That Bill Kristol said this:
“If this election is just about the last four years, that’s a muddy verdict. Bush was president during the financial meltdown. The Obama team has turned that around pretty well.”
He’s right, you know (and I rarely use those four words in reference to Kristol):
If this election is about the last four years, and a big part of it is, then voting for Willard Romney is tantamount for voting for Bush III. He’s not only in favor of continuing the same unpaid-for tax cuts that Bush stuck the economy, but he also wants to privatize Medicare, schools, and, well, pretty much corporatize America overall.
The red bars represent monthly job totals under the Bush administration, the blue bars show job totals under the Obama administration.
As you can see, Steve Benen over at The Maddow Blog has his monthly Bikini Graph/jobs report up. Our post about the unemployment rate dropping to 8.1% and relevant numbers is here.
By the way, Team Willard, what are you emphasizing this month? That the unemployment rate is Very Important, or that the jobs numbers are? Because the unemployment rate is the lowest since President Obama took office, but oddly, this time around, Romney and Co. are concentrating on the number of jobs created. But when the unemployment rate was higher, that was their focus.
Oh well. They probably forgot about all that, just like they forgot about GW Bush’s entire presidency and that pesky war in Afghanistan that they failed to mention at their convention. Just as they keep forgetting that Republicans are responsible for the loss of so many public sector jobs (teachers, firefighters, police officers, etc.), which, had they not been cut, would have knocked that 8.1% number way down.
Steve has more details on the jobs situation, but here’s the quick version:
As is nearly always the case, there was a gap in the public vs. private sectors — American businesses added 103,000 jobs last month, while the government shed another 7,000 jobs. [...]
For context, I’d note that so far in 2012, the economy has created 1.11 million jobs — 1.2 million in the private sector — which isn’t even close to being good enough, but the total is already better than five of the eight years of the Bush/Cheney era.
Despite all that obstruction by the GOP, despite their blocking any jobs bills that the Dems sent their way, this happened:
Forbes: U.S. businesses stepped up hiring last month, adding workers at a greater-than-expected pace, according to a new report from payroll giant ADP. The unexpected surge may suggest that the healing labor market is faring better than previous figures showed.
Private companies in August brought on 201,000 new workers in August. This is considerably higher than economists’ forecasts… Small and medium-sized businesses contributed the lion’s share of the growth.Large corporations added only 8%, some 16,000. [...]
Another set of data this morning also seemed to reflect an improved labor market. Jobless claims fell to 365,000 last week, lower than economists estimated.
Oh, and the Dow is up 244 points today. They can blame Obama for that, too:
S.&.P. 500 Closes at Four-Year High After European Bond Plan
Decisive moves by the head of the European Central Bank sent the benchmark American stock index to a four-year high and fueled hopes that the foundation for a more lasting solution to the European debt crisis may be taking shape.
The markets have greeted several previous efforts to solve Europe’s economic woes with euphoria, only to be quickly deflated. While investors were bracing for the latest plan to run into problems, there were numerous signals that this plan may have staying power.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index jumped 2 percent by the close to its highest level since January 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 244 points, or 1.9 percent. And the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.2 percent for its highest close since December 2000.
U.S. stocks surged Thursday, with all three major indexes closing at the highest levels in years, as optimistic investors went on a buying spree.
A combination of stronger-than-expected data on the job market and the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program provided the momentum. The Dow Jones industrial average closed more than 240 points higher.
The rally comes a day ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report and hours before President Barack Obama makes his case for re-election in a convention speech accepting the Democratic presidential nomination.
There’s a long way to go, but if this is what the GOP are going to attack, this report just made their job a little harder.
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