Archive for battleground states

Texas GOP Chairman: State could become a battleground in 2016.


bluish you don't look bluish

Texas GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri believes Texas could become a swing state in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs, but that Republicans will be up to the challenge. He takes the prospect very seriously, and unlike some in his party, he is refusing to dismiss it.

Real Clear Politics:

In an interview with RCP, [Texas GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri] said that he has long taken seriously the possibility that Texas could become a battleground as early as 2016, particularly if Clinton becomes the Democratic standard-bearer.

“If she’s the nominee, I would say that this is a ‘lean Republican’ state but not a ‘solid Republican’ state,” he said. “I don’t know anyone nationally who’s scoffing at this. The national party leadership is aware and tells me they’re taking it seriously.

Munisteri said that he has had recent discussions with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus about the need to prepare for a significant change in the political dynamic here, noting that the need will likely become even more pressing in the next decade. That’s when Texas is expected to see its minority population rise more sharply -- as it adds as many as four additional electoral votes to make it an even shinier target for Democrats than it already is.

Republicans better brush up on their shiny new fake-big tent talk before anyone realizes they don't mean a word of it.


Poll-itics: President Obama leads Mitt Romney in 12 battleground states


NPR poll:  Mitt Romney is ahead by one point nationally, but President Obama leads 50% to 46%, in 12 battleground states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.


Poll-itics: President Obama leading Mitt Romney in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Minnesota, and Colorado


Ruh-roh, Willard. The polls aren't swing-stating your way. NBC/Wall St. Journal polls show that among likely voters, President Obama leads 49%-44% in Florida, 49%-44% in Virginia, and 50%-43% in Ohio.

And a Public Policy Polling poll shows the president leading in Minnesota 51% to 44%.

Did I mention Colorado? An OnSight Public Affairs/Project New America survey has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 49% to 44%.


Mitt Romney’s playing field is experiencing shrinkage


As has been reported, for now at least, Republican super PACs have pulled their resources from Michigan and Pennsylvania. At first I saw that as good news for Team Obama, but then I wondered if the Romney campaign will just blitz those states in the future. I'm no strategist or expert in these things, so your guess is as good as mine.

And of course, I am always wringing my hands over voter suppression, which could keep hundreds of thousands from the polls.

Jonathan Chait offers some encouraging insight, but I'm still only cautiously optimistic at this point:

Romney is targeting eight states: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire. No Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. This is surely not because Romney is husbanding scarce cash.  [...]

The reason this looks worrisome for Romney is that he’s pursuing an electoral-college strategy that requires him nearly to run the table of competitive states. ... If you play with the electoral possibilities, you can see that this would mean Obama could win with Florida alone or Ohio plus a small state or Virginia plus a couple small states, and so on.

Unless I’m missing something badly here, Romney needs either a significant national shift his way — possibly from the debates or some other news event — or else to hope that his advertising advantage is potent enough to move the dial in almost every swing state in which he’s competing.

Or else to hope that disenfranchising voters will achieve what his money can't.