Archive for austerity

University Grad Student Debunks Major Austerity Theory by Exposing Flawed Stats

I’ve always believed (and seen demonstrated in reality) that ‘you have to spend money to make money’, the right-wing theory that to prosper you have to spend less made no sense.  Education and infrastructure, two core components of successful societies, cost money and if they’re to be for the good of all, instead of a few rich investors, the money has to come from tax revenue.

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The theory made no sense to others either, including Thomas Herndon, University of Massachusetts economics grad student who discovered major flaws in the ‘research’, really basic statistical flaws added to incompetence in coding an Excel spreadsheet.

From Mark Karlin (of BuzzFlash writing at Truthout) quoting Paul Krugman:

But just look at the predictions the two sides in this debate have made. People like me predicted right from the start that large budget deficits would have little effect on interest rates, that large-scale “money printing” by the Fed (not a good description of actual Fed policy, but never mind) wouldn’t be inflationary, that austerity policies would lead to terrible economic downturns. The other side jeered, insisting that interest rates would skyrocket and that austerity would actually lead to economic expansion. Ask bond traders, or the suffering populations of Spain, Portugal and so on, how it actually turned out.

Read more at Truthout

Krugman, take a victory lap: University Grad Student Debunks Major Austerity Theory by Exposing Flawed Stats

krugman victory lap

Speaking of how austerity is “having a devastating effect on health in Europe and North America, driving suicide,” here is your Daily Dose of BuzzFlash at Truthout, via my pal Mark Karlin:

It’s about time Paul Krugman took a victory lap – and he does in his Monday New York Times column:

…People like me predicted right from the start that large budget deficits would have little effect on interest rates, that large-scale “money printing” by the Fed (not a good description of actual Fed policy, but never mind) wouldn’t be inflationary, that austerity policies would lead to terrible economic downturns. The other side jeered, insisting that interest rates would skyrocket and that austerity would actually lead to economic expansion. Ask bond traders, or the suffering populations of Spain, Portugal and so on, how it actually turned out. [...]

Some… see the crisis as an opportunity to dismantle the social safety net. And just about everyone in the policy elite takes cues from a wealthy minority that isn’t actually feeling much pain. [...]

[A] Univeristy of Massachusetts graduate economic student… discovered major statistical errors in the primary research paper (authored by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff) used by advocates to justify austerity measures. [...]

Herndon proved that their database and coding was so statistically flawed as to offer little basis for justifying national austerity measures as a viable economic option.

In an April 19 column, Krugman discusses the torpedoing of the academic austerity touchstone:

… Reinhart-Rogoff … tipping-point claim was treated not as a disputed hypothesis but as unquestioned fact. [...]

[S]ome correlation between high debt and slow growth, with no indication of which is causing which, but no sign at all of that 90 percent “threshold.” [...]

What the Reinhart-Rogoff affair shows is the extent to which austerity has been sold on false pretenses. For three years, the turn to austerity has been presented not as a choice but as a necessity. … But “economic research” showed no such thing… Policy makers abandoned the unemployed and turned to austerity because they wanted to, not because they had to.

It took a university grad student to reveal research that powered the likes of Americans for Prosperity, ALEC, the Club for Economic Growth and most of the politicians in DC – when it comes to being cheerleaders for austerity – as highly flawed.

(You can read the University of Massachusetts study that finds the “austerity bible” coding errors here. It was co-authored by Mass U Professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin.)

Please read the entire post here.

Researchers: Austerity is “having a devastating effect on health in Europe and North America, driving suicide”

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A few days ago, Think Progress posted “Food Infections Rose In 2012, But Government Is Still Gutting Food Safety Programs.”  Yes, by all means, what America needs is more budget cuts. Who cares about the nation’s collective health and well being when we can cut into programs we really need?

Additionally, the IMF said that the Europe austerity strategy is dragging down global growth. Details, details. European austerity is costing lives, plus, mental illness, suicide rates and epidemics are on the rise as access to care has dwindled.

What part of austerity is a really bad idea don’t Republicans get?

Now Reuters is buttressing those reports with this:

Austerity is having a devastating effect on health in Europe and North America, driving suicide, depression and infectious diseases and reducing access to medicines and care, researchers said on Monday.

Detailing a decade of research, Oxford University political economist David Stuckler [a senior researcher at Oxford University and co-author The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills] and Sanjay Basu, an assistant professor of medicine and an epidemiologist at Stanford University, said their findings show austerity is seriously bad for health. [...]

[M]ore than five million Americans have lost access to healthcare during the latest recession, they argue, while in Britain, some 10,000 families have been pushed into homelessness by the government’s austerity budget.

Stuckler went on to say that there have been “HIV and malaria outbreaks, shortages of essential medicines, lost healthcare access, and an avoidable epidemic of alcohol abuse, depression and suicide… Austerity is having a devastating effect.”

By catering to corporate interests and their own self-interests, the GOP is only making matters horribly worse. We should be investing in jobs, infrastructure, and stimulus plans that would result in growth, not be eliminating jobs and life-saving programs and killing our own citizens.

USA! USA!

Instead, we’re cutting the very things that keep us safe, healthy, and alive. Think Progress:

The United States has seen multiple outbreaks of foodborne illnesses in the last three years while budget cuts have targeted food safety and inspection agencies, and the first major modernization of its food safety laws was hamstrung by spending cuts. Education cuts have hit school lunch and other nutrition programs. Other deficit reduction efforts have hammered health programs. And those problems are only going to get worse as sequestration — the automatic budget cuts implemented on March 1 — continue to take effect.

Nice to see Republicans reaching out to their fellow Americans, just like they said they would with that spiffy reinvention they love to crow about.

What I will not write about today

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Sometimes I get so frustrated and/or disheartened and/or annoyed by some of the news stories of the day that I can’t bring myself to write about them. Here are a few recent reports that made my blood pressure hit the roof. I am avoiding delving into them at length out of concern for my physical and mental health.

  • Boy Scouts Propose Allowing Gay Scouts, But Not Gay Scout Leaders “The resolution includes the claim that screening adult leaders is important for ‘protecting Scouts.’”  Forget about protecting equal rights. Forget about protecting everyone from discrimination and prejudice. Just protect the Scouts from every single gay man who ever lived, because clearly they are all icky pedophiles who are into bestiality and incest.

See what I mean? So who’s up for a couple of Margs or a trough of wine?

drunk ab workout

In other news, IMF says Europe austerity strategy is dragging down global growth

Via AusterityNut.com

Via AusterityNut.com

There is other news happening today besides the horrific ongoing Boston bombing story. We’ll continue to do our best to bring you some of it.

For some time now, we here at The Political Carnival have maintained that the austerity that Republicans have been insisting on is a really bad idea (scroll). Cutting isn’t the answer, jobs are, rebuilding our infrastructure is.

All those police officers that were laid off due to budget cuts are the same first responders who the GOP have been praising as the Boston Marathon story unfolded. Yet somehow they think firing them is somehow helpful.

Now the Los Angeles Times has this report that tells us what many of us already know: More austerity could further endanger our economy.

Britain and the Eurozone are steadfastly sticking to austerity measures despite increasing evidence that such action alone isn’t working to revive their economies and is dragging down global growth. [...]

European leaders have come under renewed pressure this week from the International Monetary Fund and other parties … In papers and at forums, fund officials and outside experts said it was clear that government belt-tightening was taking a deeper toll on growth, especially in struggling Eurozone economies, than many of them previously thought.

Moreover, academic economists offered new evidence that cast doubt on a pro-austerity view that countries crossing certain debt-burden thresholds would see negative economic output.

IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said that Britain’s continued austerity push is “playing with fire.”

But that won’t stop the GOP. Rampant irresponsible gun ownership is playing with fire, too, but they’ve rallied behind anyone and everyone who fetishizes firearms, including military-style assault weapons like those used to massacre six-year-olds.

Reasoned thinking isn’t exactly their strong suit.

European Austerity Costing Lives – Shredded Social Net

Worth thinking about on an Easter morning.

From ‘Der Spiegel’ International

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As the euro crisis wears on, the tough austerity measures implemented in ailing member states are resulting in serious health issues, a study revealed on Wednesday. Mental illness, suicide rates and epidemics are on the rise, while access to care has dwindled.

The rigid austerity measures brought on by the euro crisis are having catastrophic effects on the health of people in stricken countries, health experts reported on Wednesday.

Not only have the fiscal austerity policies failed to improve the economic situation in these countries, but they have also put a serious strain on their health care systems, according to an analysis of European health by medical journal The Lancet. Major cuts to public spending and health services have brought on drastic deterioration in the overall health of residents, the journal reported, citing the outbreak of epidemics and a spike in suicides.

Read more from the original article here.

VIDEO: When Democrats try to make valid points on Sunday talk shows, this is what often happens

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How many times have you seen conservative guests on talk shows monopolize discussions, talk over the host and other guests, veer off onto tangential points of their choosing, avoid answering direct questions, and intentionally stray off the topic at hand?

And how many times have you seen Sunday talk show hosts allow that to happen? My answer: More often than not.

With that in mind, watch David Gregory cut off Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, former Democratic Lt. Governor of Maryland (Please note: Marriage equality is hugely important to me, and hosts do need to stay on point, but twice today, I noticed Democrats being cut off, not Republicans.):

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Kathleen Kennedy Townsend:

…Just to go back to the other issue, growth really could occur, as Keynes pointed out, by actually spending government money. You can see what has happened in England when everybody’s practiced austerity. The currency is going down. And the unemployment is worse. So I don’t know if the Republicans are really interested in growth if they’re not actually saying, “Let’s spend money now.” This is our biggest challenge.

David Gregory:

I want to stay on the gay marriage issue if I can…

Nobody could stop you, David, so of course you can, you’re the host. You control the conversation. And this conversation was inconveniently making a valid point that needed to reach a wider audience, your audience.

Now that won’t happen.

And anyone who still believes there’s such a thing as a “liberal media” needs to scroll through these posts.