The bottom line, said Ipsos’ polling director Clifford Young: If Obama’s weak approval rating stays at 47 percent, there is an 85 percent chance he wins reelection. Should it rise to 50 percent or better, which is the goal of the Obama-Biden campaign, he stands a 99 percent chance of winning.
“Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?”
This is good news, but, as Young correctly points out, control of the House and Senate is hugely important, as is made more obvious every day when the GOP filibusters and obstructs bill after bill, nominee after nominee.