Stock Market Picks 90 Percent of Presidential Elections


'68 and '04 we were in foreign wars, that makes sense so I wonder what made '56 different too?

If voters wish to predict the 2012 election, one investment firm is instructing them to push polls aside, ignore political pundits, turn off the debates, and follow the Dow.

InvestTech Research, an investment firm out of Montana, says the stock market is the most reliable indicator of who will win the presidency and has been for more than 100 years.


No number of bumper stickers, catchy campaign slogans, or super PAC-attack ads can influence an election like stock numbers, Vermulm says. The math is simple. If the stock market gains in the two months leading up to the presidential election, the incumbent party wins. If the market falls, the incumbent party loses.

Since 1900, the stock market has correctly forecast nearly 90 percent of presidential elections. In the 28 elections tracked, there have been only three exceptions: 1956, 1968, and 2004.